Enhancing Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting in East Anglia: A Case for Innovation and Resilience

Apr 14

6 min read

Andrew Iwanoczko, CEO of Callala Ltd (UK) & Dr. Athina Lange, Oceanographer at US Geological Survey (US)

The Growing Need for Coastal Monitoring in East Anglia

The coastline of East Anglia, encompassing the counties of Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk, is among the most vulnerable in the UK to climate-induced changes. As storm intensity and frequency rise due to climate change, the pressure on already fragile coastal systems is escalating rapidly. The combination of soft sediment cliffs, tidal marshes, and low-lying communities makes this region particularly sensitive to storm-driven flooding and erosion. Understanding and predicting these changes requires robust monitoring systems that can capture both acute storm impacts and gradual coastal evolution.

Recent years have shown clear warning signs of this vulnerability across the region:

In Norfolk, severe storm surges in 2013 caused widespread flooding and forced over 1,000 people to evacuate their homes, with significant erosion in places like Happisburgh. This coastline continues to recede at rates of up to 5 meters per year in the most vulnerable sections[1],[2].
In Suffolk, the coast around Covehithe and Dunwich continues to retreat at alarming rates, with entire stretches of cliff line eroding under wave action. A 2020 report highlighted that Suffolk's coastline is retreating faster than many other parts of the UK, with some areas losing up to 10 meters in a single storm event[3].
In Essex, the low-lying marshlands face compound threats from sea-level rise and storm surges. The Dengie Peninsula and areas around Tollesbury are at risk of overtopping and saline intrusion. A 2023 Environment Agency review identified these zones as future flood hotspots requiring immediate attention[4].

As the climate warms, the North Sea basin is experiencing changes in tidal patterns, storm surge dynamics, and wave energy[5],[6].Combined with East Anglia's erodible coasts and limited natural barriers, the risk of storm damage is increasing. According to recent national estimates, flood-related physical damages in the UK already cost approximately £2.4 billion annually, with long-term economic impacts potentially exceeding £6.1 billion per year. This growing threat calls for a smarter, more dynamic way to monitor, predict, and prepare for coastal impacts - one that leverages advanced satellite technology to provide comprehensive, real-time data[7].

International Lessons: What Can We Learn from the US and Australia?

To understand how to better prepare for East Anglia's vulnerable coastlines, we turn to pioneering work from other parts of the world where similar challenges have been addressed with innovative monitoring systems.

The US Example – Stockdon et al. Researchers from NOAA and the US Geological Survey, led by Hilary Stockdon, developed a way to forecast how far up the beach waves will travel, including during storm events. They found that the height and energy of waves (not just tide or surge) are critical to understanding the risk of coastal flooding and erosion[8].

Their 2006 study created a formula for estimating a maximum water runup height (the highest point the majority of the waves could reach) based on wave height, period, and beach slope. Building on this foundation, their 2023 follow-up work applied this formula across thousands of kilometres of coastline[9]. The arising USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer[10] is a real-time forecast tool that now helps predict when and where dunes and reinforced coastlines might erode or be overtopped, giving communities crucial advance warning. The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal[11] combines information from the Total Water Level forecast and shoreline observations to present vulnerability likelihood under storm scenarios and sea-level rise and rates of shoreline change.

The Australian Approach – Turner et al. (2024) A team at UNSW Sydney, led by Prof. Ian Turner, built a national early warning system, extending the USGS approach, by combining fast, simple models with more detailed simulations. It operates at two levels:

A national forecast map updated daily, showing expected flooding and erosion zones.
High-resolution models at important local sites, using beach profiles and wave forecasts to simulate impacts like dune loss or reduced beach access.

This system was designed with emergency planners and councils in mind. It offers clear visual summaries of expected hazards and has been piloted in places like Perth and Sydney[12].

Satellite derived shorelines have been used to extensively validate total water level forecasts around the world[13].

Both these approaches demonstrate how satellite data combined with coastal modelling can create practical tools for managing storm impacts, so offering valuable lessons for developing similar capabilities along East Anglia's vulnerable shorelines.

Making This Work for East Anglia: In Simple Terms

Here’s what the three studies say when you strip away the technical language:

Key Concept	What It Means for East Anglia
Wave runup is a major part of flooding	It’s not just tides or storm surge – big waves can push water far inland, especially on flat beaches or sandy cliffs.
Beaches behave differently depending on shape	Flat sandy beaches (like parts of Essex) respond differently than steep cliffs (like in Suffolk or Norfolk). We need to predict locally.
Forecasting needs to be local and timely	A national map is helpful, but detailed predictions at known problem spots are essential.
Satellite data can help monitor change	Using satellites, we can now see how beaches and cliffs change after a storm.

A UK Forecasting Proposal Based on International Best Practice

We propose adapting the US and Australian methods to suit the East Anglian coast.

For our pilot sites, we would select vulnerable locations across the region: the Dengie Peninsula or Tollesbury Marshes in Essex to study flooding over saltmarshes; Covehithe or Dunwich in Suffolk for monitoring rapid cliff erosion; and Happisburgh in Norfolk, a known hotspot for retreat and wave attack.

Once sites are selected, we would apply established coastal models using wave and tide forecasts, along with beach and cliff shape, to calculate runup and likely impact zones. This would involve applying the Stockdon equation for runup at each site using local slope, wave height, and period, and implementing the Turner model to classify erosion severity and flooding types.

The next phase would involve building a two-level forecast system. At the regional level, we would deploy fast models every 100–250m along the coast to identify hotspots. For the local level, more detailed simulations using the open-source XBeach model would focus on key risk zones, underpinning two-dimensional models for wave propagation, long waves and mean flow, sediment transport and morphological changes of the nearshore area, beaches, dunes and back barrier during storms [14]. All outputs would be delivered via a dashboard similar to the one used in Australia[15].

Engagement with local authorities and communities would be essential. We would work with the Environment Agency, DEFRA, and local councils to use the outputs for preparedness, while offering visual risk summaries to residents, similar to weather warnings.

Perhaps the most exciting development in this field is the increasing use of satellite data to monitor coasts in near-real time. This includes shoreline mapping using Sentinel-2 and Landsat satellites to detect coastline movement after storms. AI-powered tools now extract cliff edges, marsh fronts, and other features from satellite images, with tools like CoastSat already being used in Australia and Europe[16],[17],[18]. Stereo satellites like Pléiades and Maxar can provide 3D models of terrain, ideal for calculating beach slope and dune height before and after storms, and Sentinel-1 derived coastline extraction at different tidal states helps to support the topography picture. Subject to water column turbidity, techniques even allow estimation of underwater topography nearshore, further improving wave modelling. Recently, benchmarking is being undertaken to validate shoreline mapping algorithms, ensuring once deployed, results can be relied upon within quantifiable estimations of error[19].

A Coastal Monitoring Blueprint for East Anglia

By combining international best practices, the predictive power of wave runup models, and the monitoring capacity of satellite data, we can offer a new blueprint for East Anglia. One that is more dynamic, localised, and forward-looking.

This position piece outlines a path that could help protect vulnerable communities, prioritise coastal adaptation investments, and bring the power of space-based technology to the shoreline. We invite stakeholders in local government, science, and innovation, including Space East[20], to help pilot and champion this vital work.

….

Callala is incredibly grateful to Dr. Athina Lange, Contractor with the USGS, for the support in both bringing this vital work to the attention of a UK audience and for the work in reviewing and revising this practical interpretation of the literature as an assessment of its applicability in a UK context.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/athina-lange-7394a6aa/

*Graphic Design: Victoria Beall

References:

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-63822899

[2] https://www.ncesc.com/geographic-faq/will-happisburgh-disappear/

[3] https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/business/21261677.warning-suffolks-coast-making-alarming-retreat/

[4] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-strategy-for-england

[5] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.685758/full

[6]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333523864_Wave_Climate_Change_in_the_North_Sea_and_Baltic_Sea

[7] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/20/flood-defences-spending-warning

[8] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378383906000044

[9] https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00817-2